Thread: Would sensex go furthur down?

In my opinion sensex will dip down to about 10500 before it starts to recover

My total worth is down by 27% since January this year and thats coz I had been going short for a long time now and have covered up for my losses I suffered in Jan .. else I would be down by atleast 45%

Markets dont look very good and I am still short selling financial stocks and real estate stocks...

Care to share your positions?

I mostly invest in SIPs and I am down 22%.

Because of oil flares, I am expecting further losses from the market. I am expecting Sensex to go to 12K levels.

The reason I believe that sensex would go below 11000 mark is that I am expecting inflation to go upto 14-15% and may be even higher and with that rising interest rates will kill the liquidity in the markets and this has a snowball effect on market sentiments and every one just starts selling like mad

I have a few friends who have parket their money in gold already as they also expect the markets to dip by another 25-30% within the next 3 months or so.

I might sell some property to do some bottom fishing once the markets are below 11k mark

I am surprised that not many people know that when markets are hit this bad its actually a very good time to enter the market and those who do enter the markets at such low levels are the ones who have the last laugh

Actually these heavy dips are very much suitable for SIP. Our country's growth rate is intact. Iam doubtful that sensex can go below 11000. But it is most likely to see 12000 levels. Actually it is the only place where people loose interest when things are getting on cheaper rates.

It is a good opportunity to invest in Group A stocks. It will bring good results within a couple of years.

Yes SIP is the best thing for investors who want some consistency and dont want to worry about ups and downs as their investments are made t all the levels and thats what ensures that your average aquisition price is at a good level in the long term perspective.

Coming to sensex again

Our market is still trading at a higher premium as compared to other bric countries and as people are loosing money here other countries are still churning profits taking into consideration the last 12 months.. Big investors are fleding the market with every rally... what else could be a recipe to disaster?

The moment RBI ups the interest rates India's ratings will go down again and this inflation is not due to liquidity its a global thing and RBI cant do ****.

India's best bet would be to keep the markets attractive by opening up the economy a bit more and stop interfering in the pricing of all and any commodities.

This stupid subsidy should come to an end so there is nothing artificial about the economy ... The government wasted the last 3-4 years which they could have used to gradually doing away with the subsidies but who on Earth knew that crude oil will go up to such levels that it is now?

The real estate in India is over heated and is due for a major correction and I am of the opinion that sooner the better. For those who dont believe that real estate market needs a correction then here is a small calculation:

One 3 bedroom flat at Dwarka will cost you Rs8000000+
One 2 bedroon flat at Dwarka will set you back by Rs6000000+
One 1 bedroom flat will cost you Rs3500000

Now compare this with properties near London and Newyork or Toronto.

The point I am making is that a flat in Delhi will cost you more then 50% of what you would pay in the above mentioned cities across the globe and the problem is that the average income to cost ratio of these properties in Delhi cant go together for too long.

There is another factor:
A property worth Rs9500000 + in West Delhi and the rent for this property I am talking about is Rs12000
This makes the price of the property almost 800 times the monthly rent... Its just way out of the place.
The thumb rule is 200 times the monthly rent and at the moment property in west Delhi is doing about 4 times it should be even if you consider the long term average its just way too high and needs to come down.

Sticking to my own theory I will take my money out of real estate the moment sensex dips below 11500 as in my opinion currently fair value for sensex is at about 13000 but given the negetive sentiment the markets will go way below the realistic fair value and will give a good deal for all those who want to enter the market at those levels.

**If the market doesnt go below the 11000 mark please make it a point o bump this thread after November 2008 I would be happy to take some beating

I too invested mostly in mutual funds and almost all of them are around 20% or above down. And the funny part is that this is the first time long time back i invested in mutual funds and as when i thought of withdrawing the money the markets started crumbling and i waited for it to raise again, alas, it's fallen to the dump!

Heya admin gimme some tips on investing... Ur knowledge sounds proficient and effecient.

admin and just4kix are masters when it comes to Stock Exchange!!!

No. I am not. I know nothing about Stock Market. Whatever I said previously was just common sense and repeatation of what the experts said in the media.

hahaha LMAO


just4kix can be very funny!!

Originally Posted by players_player

Heya admin gimme some tips on investing... Ur knowledge sounds proficient and effecient.

It really depends on a lot of factors..

The amount of money you want to spend
Your risk taking ability
The horizon of your investment.

And a number of other factors.. If you are planning to invest a regular amount of a long term and are asking tips on investment then your best bet would be a good sip portfolio assuming that you dont have a lot of knowledge about equity and or debt markets and even if you do and dont want the hassel of keeping track on a daily basis.

If you have some basic knowledge of macro economics you can use this triangle of EQUITY>REAL ESTATE>GOLD
All you need to do is learn about the broader trends in the market and keep switching between these three and trust me there is a lot of money to be made if you switch at the right time and ride the waves these three make every 1.5 to 2 years.

Thanks admin i have no idea about macro economix cos i aint graduated yet. but wud definitely luk out to learn more about it from websites and see how i can enhance my profits in equities. cos im into equity trading from time to time. but my bro tells me there is a chance sensex is gonna go below 11000. and told me not to invest in any stocks right now!!

well i know about equity real estate gold but my point is how does one really balance it?

does macronomix teach that?

Our forum got hacked and these guys are worried abt "Sensex"

let it go whereever it wants to go let worry abt our forum security

Its not even November yet and we are at the 12000 mark...

Does anyone still have doubts that sensex will go below 11000 before November?

No doubts as such. Diwali's got to do a lot with this followed by Christmas..

- Sensex will hover around 12K mark.... will definately dip for short period.
- Sale is on.... even if you are about 30% negative.. outsell at loss and opt for premiums and top slot scrips. these will return higher than your total -ve impact.
- Forget mutual funds... dont even look at NAVs for couple of years.
- Stop SIPs (shud opt for OTB in certain MFs)
- Sensex will, in short span of time, will be independent of OIL trade.
- Anyone in for Gold / Silver.... they paid more returns then my total -ve scrips.

That's what i m doing and will do.

Unfortunately It's below 12k now

10800

There is more BAD news to come... Fly to safety if you can and dont try to average out just yet... DO NOT invest today... markets will slip a lot more before they start to stabilise..

I am still 45% liquid and I am selling some property as well to get the most out of the bottom which we will see in the weeks to come.

I am investing about 1% of the cash I have in stocks every day and will push all my money in once the SENSEX dips down to 9000 mark... dont be surprised... any time soon.

My net worth down by 32% since Jan 22nd 2008 which is great as compared to to some who have been beaten to death with the falls we have seen in recent weeks.

The only stock which is killing me is BIOCON and I am loosing about 77% on that right now I will try and get out of this stock and stay as liquid as I can right now


Best of luck guys I hope you are all doing well and were prepared for this blood bath.

Never dared to invest in stocks. I'm reconsidering my investment plans nowadays. I too expect the market to go down further for the next few _weeks_ before stabilizing.

Originally Posted by players_player

Heya admin gimme some tips on investing... Ur knowledge sounds proficient and effecient.

I started a thread on savings (investment)...Start Saving Early

I would welcome people (like Admin,smoothvibes,just4kix,pothi,etc) to put in their ideas....

Today was the BLACK DAY for indian markets. The Sensex slipped below the 10,000 mark due to worries on economic slowdown.The benchmarks touched their new 2008 lows today. Both Sensex and Nifty touched lows of 9,911.32 and 3,046.60 respectively.

Another Bad Day..

Today the market opened badly it was down by some 400-500 points @ 9,683.41 and closed @ 9,771.70. I have never seen these figure since I have started taking Interest in Stock Market

I am guessing that markets will bottom out at 8000 (or even 7000).

In any case, at 21000, the market was overpriced, just as the real estate. The true value of the sensex in my opinion is 13K to 15K.

Those of you, who have not entered the market, keep a watch for the next month and enter any time you feel like. No time to enter like the bear phase.

Another place to keep an eye on the Sensex is at
http://finance.google.com/finance?q=INDEXBOM:.BSESN
The tracking is not live though but delayed by 10 minutes.

Next stron support level for NIFTY is at 2000 and above that there is no stron resistance on NIFTY

Sensex may see 6500 levels

Bears are here to stay for a good 7-8 months and may be more.