Thread: Who will win the poll

Similar to the case of last NDA govt., there is a feeling that UPA might return to power.

In case of NDA, they do not have TDP, AIADMK & now BJD. Saffron is something in north, in south it is different. The no. tallies went in favour of NDA due to TDP, DMK and AIADMK.

As for UPA they seem to play safe. Their allies are intact, actually they may end up in splitting the 3rd front after the results.

Is it possible that TDP or AIADMK may move to NDA after results. Since DMK has strong ties with congress, AIADMK will always try to keep DMK out of power. As for TDP, their main opponent in AP is congress. It is obvious that they may not support its come back.

May be they are trying to steal secular votes by staying away from saffron.

Lalu, Pawar, Mayawati, Jayalalitha, Mulayam,Devagauda etc spend their day dreaming of the PM post. i don't know how feasible a third front is. Is it an election gimmick to attract anti saffron, anti cong votes?

As for left, be assured, they wont be able to reach those magic numbers they made last time. Last time they won all but one seat in kerala. This time it is different. In WB, congress has tied up with Trinamul. Many feel post singur-nandigram scenario is not in favour of left.

Originally Posted by meetdilip

This time it is different. In WB, congress has tied up with Trinamul. Many feel post singur-nandigram scenario is not in favour of left.

I can't say much about the Tamilnadu but in case of West Bengal this time one tough challenge is present for Left and specially for CPI(M) obviously after Singur, Nandigram and few more issue ruling party is in little trouble once after 1984 Lokshabha election.
congress & Trinomul seat adjustment is still not announce officially but probably it will be announce today and they will contest as 28-14 ratio(Trinomul 28 & congress 14)
I think this year even fight will be happen between UPA & NDA may be others party which now present in third front will be decisive for formation of govt.

Good insight rupu. Does anybody know about the trend in Eastern India. Who dominates the scene? Sangama is trying to tie up with congress. Meghalaya govt. is in trouble after an independent resigned from the Govt. How will this end up?

And Gujarat, will the Modi magic work this time. Hope some TV channel will come up with a few more confessions from riotists. May be that will ensure his victory.

Whosoever spends maximum to fool electorate wins.

Probably this year elections will be happen with very much local or state issue rather than national issue and the small party will get more important after the election and Big national party's seat also can be vary due to delimitation of Loksabha seat.

If you peep into last election's tactics, NDA was confident of winning the election after Kargil and a feel good factor. This prompted them to make some tactical failures.

1. Since they knew they are going to come back, saffron decided to minimize the influence of allies.

2.They were also concerned about the security situation.

So the dumbed DMK a known ally of Militant group LTTE and joined hands with Jayalalitha's AIADMK. This was a mistake.The anti incumbency factor in Tamilnadu was miscalculated. Jayalalitha ruthlessly crushed a strike by govt. employees ( which i will say, a very good thing to do). Since the govt. employees and their family make a good population, they actually worked against AIADMK, Jayalalitha and practically NDA. There were some other determined steps by Jayalalitha which didn't go well with the voters.

If you see, this was major set back, UPA sweeped all seats in TN.

In AP, congress made alliance with TRS ( their record is not so good), this helped them win AP. Shivsena -saffron failed to work in Maharashtra, left had a good chunk of kerala, WB and other leftist states.

This time congress should have finalized the pact with Mulayam. In WB, they did it, but that may make a difference of max 5 seats. In TN, Jayalalitha's AIADMK is likely to better their performance. In Karnataka, BJP seems to have an upper hand. But Sriram Sena issue may play spoil sport. Very likely, it may also unite Hindu votes. In Maharashtra, NCP - cong govt seems to be not good as last time ( not sure how it is going to swing). After mumbai attacks and all. And NCP is making a bargain.

In UP, Ajit singh is with NDA now,it can make a 7-10 seat difference. In Bihar, things are not well for NDA and Cong. JD(U) have some issues with NDA and bargain will swing in their favour after BJD's quit. Lalu and Paswan has made a tie up. But Nitish kumar seems to have a upper hand. Lalu will stay with UPA as long as he is not the chief minister of Bihar. But Paswan?

Now reports say Sangma is holding some talks with NDA. In Gujarat Modi won't be able to do as good as he did last time. In Kerala, Cong will have about 7-10 seats. Last time they had zero.

right now BJP has a leadership vaccum.
Advani is too old to be projected as the next PM. Had it been Modi, may be things would have been different. The problems got more complicated with the distancing of Biju Janata Dal in Orissa and Nithish Kumar in Bihar.
So the money would be on Congress again, may be with a change in the other coalition members.
and the dark horse would be Mayavati.

Stats and probability are in favour of UPA. And it has quite good logical back up.

Originally Posted by panchabhut

right now BJP has a leadership vaccum.

Don't forget Sushama Swaraj and Arun Jaitley. They are proven leaders. A tragedy that Ambani fan Mahajan lost his life (if you don't know, he wanted to secure a Padma award for Dhirubhai Ambani).

^^^
At least Dhirubhai was better than the beurocrats who got padma awards during UPA rule as reward for going as per the wishes of the High Command

Originally Posted by rupu1983

I can't say much about the Tamilnadu but in case of West Bengal this time one tough challenge is present for Left and specially for CPI(M) obviously after Singur, Nandigram and few more issue ruling party is in little trouble once after 1984 Lokshabha election.
congress & Trinomul seat adjustment is still not announce officially but probably it will be announce today and they will contest as 28-14 ratio(Trinomul 28 & congress 14)
I think this year even fight will be happen between UPA & NDA may be others party which now present in third front will be decisive for formation of govt.

In Tamil Nadu I hope a new party comes as I am fed up to choose the lesser evil . As long as there is poverty and corruption it is very dificult to get good leaders like Lal Bahadhur Shastri.
Padma

Originally Posted by padnar

As long as there is poverty and corruption it is very dificult to get good leaders like Lal Bahadhur Shastri.
Padma

It is not like that Padma, necessity is the mother of invention. When there is poverty and corruption, when they exceeds the limit, able personalities who otherwise try to live a quite life starts involving in politics. It is the basic principle of philosophy. Haven't you heard " Dhrama samsdhapanasthaya sambavami ...." it is not always god, but people who are close to god.

All exit polls predict that the difference between NDA and UPA will be 10- 15 seats. This make the so called 3 rd front parties important. They choose to be in third front, just to keep themselves safe from anti cong and anti saffron sentiments. Now it is time for them to decide their loyalty.

Why not create a poll here and have our very own IBF Exit Polls

From third front TRS already join in NDA also TDP is thinking to join in NDA.Even left parties are in confused situation I think third front is in trouble at the begging.UPA and NDA also far behind from 272 by all the exit poll.So still it's critical situation may be picture will not be perfectly clear even in 16 May also.May be after the election result lots of small party can play big roll.

See, Third Front is simply nothing. It will break in pieces after the results. Most probably left front will join UPA once again. There is almost no chance for NDA this time. Leaving out Left Front, There will at least be a difference of 30 seats in favour of UPA according to the current compositions of UPA and NDA.

Jayalalitha - Any coalition without Karunanidhi

TDP - Any coalition which keeps Congress out of power in AP

Mayawathi - Any coalition without Mulayam

First two goes in favour of NDA, if they can do Magic with Mayawati or Mulayam, they wins. Of which Mayawathi is the likely partner.

South will decide this time.

Can we request Mods to add a poll to this thread ?

@dilip

Why are you not considering Left Front? They may be the King Makers this time also. I am hoping that NDA manages some big ally, but seems unlikely

Originally Posted by meetdilip

Jayalalitha - Any coalition without Karunanidhi

currently she is keeping her options "open" (for a post poll alliance) by not joining up with NDA ... which by ur logic would have been the thing she would have done (joining them)

Moral : Jayalalitha - Expect the unexpected

Very simple. The choice is a pro congress or non congress govt at this stage. As far as left front is considered, their support goes to pro congress govt. Up on principle or not, they will never support BJP for the time being. So the King Makers will be those who mentioned. I am not taking sides. I am trying to be as neutral as possible.

My Calculation and Prediction for West Bengal:

Total - 42 Seats

Left Front - 26 Seats

Trinamool Congress and Congress Alliance - 15 Seats

BJP - 1 Seat (Jaswant Singh)

Originally Posted by meetdilip

Very simple. The choice is a pro congress or non congress govt at this stage. As far as left front is considered, their support goes to pro congress govt. Up on principle or not, they will never support BJP for the time being. So the King Makers will be those who mentioned. I am not taking sides. I am trying to be as neutral as possible.

Yes, Even I am trying to be very neutral and practical. Whether or not NDA can give a good fight to UPA will depend upon Left Front's Decision. If Left Front Joins Hands with Congress Again - There is no chance at all for NDA

Originally Posted by padnar

In Tamil Nadu I hope a new party comes as I am fed up to choose the lesser evil . As long as there is poverty and corruption it is very dificult to get good leaders like Lal Bahadhur Shastri.
Padma

Please wait a few years. I am planning on entering politics in the
future. Can I count on your support at that time.

-F

Yes for sure.

Originally Posted by saurav_kataruka

Yes, Even I am trying to be very neutral and practical. Whether or not NDA can give a good fight to UPA will depend upon Left Front's Decision. If Left Front Joins Hands with Congress Again - There is no chance at all for NDA

15 seats for Cong - Trinamul , that is a good no.

Now it adds Mamta factor, I think she will not support a govt to which left has extended their support.

How many seats Trinamul can bag. 10 ?

Left is going to loose badly in Kerala (you already gave a picture of WB).

Yes, about 10. This situation is again a bit complex. If Left Front supports Congress - Trinamool congress will backout. Trinamool congress will not support BJP also, as this will hugely affect Party's image in the future Vidhan Sabha Election. Mamata already said that - she wont go again with BJP. They will backout as independent party if Left front goes with Congress.