View Poll Results: Who will win the General Elections 2009?

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  • UPA (Leftist will have no option but to support Congress)

    5 62.50%
  • NDA (BSP, AIADMK and TDP may swing it for them)

    3 37.50%
  • Third Front with Mayawati as PM

    0 0%
  • Fourth Front (I have no idea what this is but papers mention them)

    0 0%
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Who will win the poll

  1. #1
    meetdilip
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    Default Who will win the poll

    Similar to the case of last NDA govt., there is a feeling that UPA might return to power.

    In case of NDA, they do not have TDP, AIADMK & now BJD. Saffron is something in north, in south it is different. The no. tallies went in favour of NDA due to TDP, DMK and AIADMK.

    As for UPA they seem to play safe. Their allies are intact, actually they may end up in splitting the 3rd front after the results.

    Is it possible that TDP or AIADMK may move to NDA after results. Since DMK has strong ties with congress, AIADMK will always try to keep DMK out of power. As for TDP, their main opponent in AP is congress. It is obvious that they may not support its come back.

    May be they are trying to steal secular votes by staying away from saffron.

    Lalu, Pawar, Mayawati, Jayalalitha, Mulayam,Devagauda etc spend their day dreaming of the PM post. i don't know how feasible a third front is. Is it an election gimmick to attract anti saffron, anti cong votes?

    As for left, be assured, they wont be able to reach those magic numbers they made last time. Last time they won all but one seat in kerala. This time it is different. In WB, congress has tied up with Trinamul. Many feel post singur-nandigram scenario is not in favour of left.

  2. #2
    rupu1983
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    Quote Originally Posted by meetdilip View Post
    This time it is different. In WB, congress has tied up with Trinamul. Many feel post singur-nandigram scenario is not in favour of left.
    I can't say much about the Tamilnadu but in case of West Bengal this time one tough challenge is present for Left and specially for CPI(M) obviously after Singur, Nandigram and few more issue ruling party is in little trouble once after 1984 Lokshabha election.
    congress & Trinomul seat adjustment is still not announce officially but probably it will be announce today and they will contest as 28-14 ratio(Trinomul 28 & congress 14)
    I think this year even fight will be happen between UPA & NDA may be others party which now present in third front will be decisive for formation of govt.

  3. #3
    meetdilip
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    Default What about the east?

    Good insight rupu. Does anybody know about the trend in Eastern India. Who dominates the scene? Sangama is trying to tie up with congress. Meghalaya govt. is in trouble after an independent resigned from the Govt. How will this end up?

    And Gujarat, will the Modi magic work this time. Hope some TV channel will come up with a few more confessions from riotists. May be that will ensure his victory.

  4. #4
    Junior Member justcurio.us's Avatar
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    Whosoever spends maximum to fool electorate wins.
    Time can steal anything from u.Ur loved ones,UR victory
    UR Belongings,UR love But it cannot steal two Things-Your FAITH & CONFIDENCE.

  5. #5
    rupu1983
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    Probably this year elections will be happen with very much local or state issue rather than national issue and the small party will get more important after the election and Big national party's seat also can be vary due to delimitation of Loksabha seat.

  6. #6
    meetdilip
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    Default A repeatation?

    If you peep into last election's tactics, NDA was confident of winning the election after Kargil and a feel good factor. This prompted them to make some tactical failures.

    1. Since they knew they are going to come back, saffron decided to minimize the influence of allies.

    2.They were also concerned about the security situation.

    So the dumbed DMK a known ally of Militant group LTTE and joined hands with Jayalalitha's AIADMK. This was a mistake.The anti incumbency factor in Tamilnadu was miscalculated. Jayalalitha ruthlessly crushed a strike by govt. employees ( which i will say, a very good thing to do). Since the govt. employees and their family make a good population, they actually worked against AIADMK, Jayalalitha and practically NDA. There were some other determined steps by Jayalalitha which didn't go well with the voters.

    If you see, this was major set back, UPA sweeped all seats in TN.

    In AP, congress made alliance with TRS ( their record is not so good), this helped them win AP. Shivsena -saffron failed to work in Maharashtra, left had a good chunk of kerala, WB and other leftist states.

    This time congress should have finalized the pact with Mulayam. In WB, they did it, but that may make a difference of max 5 seats. In TN, Jayalalitha's AIADMK is likely to better their performance. In Karnataka, BJP seems to have an upper hand. But Sriram Sena issue may play spoil sport. Very likely, it may also unite Hindu votes. In Maharashtra, NCP - cong govt seems to be not good as last time ( not sure how it is going to swing). After mumbai attacks and all. And NCP is making a bargain.

    In UP, Ajit singh is with NDA now,it can make a 7-10 seat difference. In Bihar, things are not well for NDA and Cong. JD(U) have some issues with NDA and bargain will swing in their favour after BJD's quit. Lalu and Paswan has made a tie up. But Nitish kumar seems to have a upper hand. Lalu will stay with UPA as long as he is not the chief minister of Bihar. But Paswan?

    Now reports say Sangma is holding some talks with NDA. In Gujarat Modi won't be able to do as good as he did last time. In Kerala, Cong will have about 7-10 seats. Last time they had zero.

  7. #7
    Platinum Member panchabhut's Avatar
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    right now BJP has a leadership vaccum.
    Advani is too old to be projected as the next PM. Had it been Modi, may be things would have been different. The problems got more complicated with the distancing of Biju Janata Dal in Orissa and Nithish Kumar in Bihar.
    So the money would be on Congress again, may be with a change in the other coalition members.
    and the dark horse would be Mayavati.

  8. #8
    meetdilip
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    Stats and probability are in favour of UPA. And it has quite good logical back up.

  9. #9
    meetdilip
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    Quote Originally Posted by panchabhut View Post
    right now BJP has a leadership vaccum.
    Don't forget Sushama Swaraj and Arun Jaitley. They are proven leaders. A tragedy that Ambani fan Mahajan lost his life (if you don't know, he wanted to secure a Padma award for Dhirubhai Ambani).
    Last edited by meetdilip; 24th March 2009 at 10:57 AM.

  10. #10
    Platinum Member panchabhut's Avatar
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    ^^^
    At least Dhirubhai was better than the beurocrats who got padma awards during UPA rule as reward for going as per the wishes of the High Command

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by rupu1983 View Post
    I can't say much about the Tamilnadu but in case of West Bengal this time one tough challenge is present for Left and specially for CPI(M) obviously after Singur, Nandigram and few more issue ruling party is in little trouble once after 1984 Lokshabha election.
    congress & Trinomul seat adjustment is still not announce officially but probably it will be announce today and they will contest as 28-14 ratio(Trinomul 28 & congress 14)
    I think this year even fight will be happen between UPA & NDA may be others party which now present in third front will be decisive for formation of govt.
    In Tamil Nadu I hope a new party comes as I am fed up to choose the lesser evil . As long as there is poverty and corruption it is very dificult to get good leaders like Lal Bahadhur Shastri.
    Padma

  12. #12
    meetdilip
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    Quote Originally Posted by padnar View Post
    As long as there is poverty and corruption it is very dificult to get good leaders like Lal Bahadhur Shastri.
    Padma
    It is not like that Padma, necessity is the mother of invention. When there is poverty and corruption, when they exceeds the limit, able personalities who otherwise try to live a quite life starts involving in politics. It is the basic principle of philosophy. Haven't you heard " Dhrama samsdhapanasthaya sambavami ...." it is not always god, but people who are close to god.

  13. #13
    meetdilip
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    All exit polls predict that the difference between NDA and UPA will be 10- 15 seats. This make the so called 3 rd front parties important. They choose to be in third front, just to keep themselves safe from anti cong and anti saffron sentiments. Now it is time for them to decide their loyalty.

  14. #14
    saurav_k
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    Why not create a poll here and have our very own IBF Exit Polls
    Last edited by saurav_k; 15th May 2009 at 01:22 AM.

  15. #15
    rupu1983
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    From third front TRS already join in NDA also TDP is thinking to join in NDA.Even left parties are in confused situation I think third front is in trouble at the begging.UPA and NDA also far behind from 272 by all the exit poll.So still it's critical situation may be picture will not be perfectly clear even in 16 May also.May be after the election result lots of small party can play big roll.

  16. #16
    saurav_k
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    See, Third Front is simply nothing. It will break in pieces after the results. Most probably left front will join UPA once again. There is almost no chance for NDA this time. Leaving out Left Front, There will at least be a difference of 30 seats in favour of UPA according to the current compositions of UPA and NDA.

  17. #17
    meetdilip
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    Jayalalitha - Any coalition without Karunanidhi

    TDP - Any coalition which keeps Congress out of power in AP

    Mayawathi - Any coalition without Mulayam

    First two goes in favour of NDA, if they can do Magic with Mayawati or Mulayam, they wins. Of which Mayawathi is the likely partner.

    South will decide this time.

    Can we request Mods to add a poll to this thread ?
    Last edited by meetdilip; 15th May 2009 at 01:18 AM. Reason: Automerged Doublepost

  18. #18
    saurav_k
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    @dilip

    Why are you not considering Left Front? They may be the King Makers this time also. I am hoping that NDA manages some big ally, but seems unlikely

  19. #19
    ShAdOwCoN
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    Quote Originally Posted by meetdilip View Post
    Jayalalitha - Any coalition without Karunanidhi
    currently she is keeping her options "open" (for a post poll alliance) by not joining up with NDA ... which by ur logic would have been the thing she would have done (joining them)

    Moral : Jayalalitha - Expect the unexpected

  20. #20
    meetdilip
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    Very simple. The choice is a pro congress or non congress govt at this stage. As far as left front is considered, their support goes to pro congress govt. Up on principle or not, they will never support BJP for the time being. So the King Makers will be those who mentioned. I am not taking sides. I am trying to be as neutral as possible.

  21. #21
    saurav_k
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    My Calculation and Prediction for West Bengal:

    Total - 42 Seats

    Left Front - 26 Seats

    Trinamool Congress and Congress Alliance - 15 Seats

    BJP - 1 Seat (Jaswant Singh)

    Quote Originally Posted by meetdilip View Post
    Very simple. The choice is a pro congress or non congress govt at this stage. As far as left front is considered, their support goes to pro congress govt. Up on principle or not, they will never support BJP for the time being. So the King Makers will be those who mentioned. I am not taking sides. I am trying to be as neutral as possible.
    Yes, Even I am trying to be very neutral and practical. Whether or not NDA can give a good fight to UPA will depend upon Left Front's Decision. If Left Front Joins Hands with Congress Again - There is no chance at all for NDA
    Last edited by saurav_k; 15th May 2009 at 01:28 AM. Reason: Automerged Doublepost

  22. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by padnar View Post
    In Tamil Nadu I hope a new party comes as I am fed up to choose the lesser evil . As long as there is poverty and corruption it is very dificult to get good leaders like Lal Bahadhur Shastri.
    Padma
    Please wait a few years. I am planning on entering politics in the
    future. Can I count on your support at that time.

    -F

  23. #23
    saurav_k
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    Yes for sure.

  24. #24
    meetdilip
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    Quote Originally Posted by saurav_kataruka View Post
    Yes, Even I am trying to be very neutral and practical. Whether or not NDA can give a good fight to UPA will depend upon Left Front's Decision. If Left Front Joins Hands with Congress Again - There is no chance at all for NDA
    15 seats for Cong - Trinamul , that is a good no.

    Now it adds Mamta factor, I think she will not support a govt to which left has extended their support.

    How many seats Trinamul can bag. 10 ?

    Left is going to loose badly in Kerala (you already gave a picture of WB).
    Last edited by meetdilip; 15th May 2009 at 01:33 AM. Reason: Automerged Doublepost

  25. #25
    saurav_k
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    Yes, about 10. This situation is again a bit complex. If Left Front supports Congress - Trinamool congress will backout. Trinamool congress will not support BJP also, as this will hugely affect Party's image in the future Vidhan Sabha Election. Mamata already said that - she wont go again with BJP. They will backout as independent party if Left front goes with Congress.

  26. #26
    ShAdOwCoN
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    Quote Originally Posted by padnar View Post
    in tamil nadu i hope a new party comes as i am fed up to choose the lesser evil . As long as there is poverty and corruption it is very dificult to get good leaders like lal bahadhur shastri.
    Padma
    49-0 ?

  27. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by padnar View Post
    good leaders like Lal Bahadhur Shastri.
    Padma
    I used to work right across from his house on Haddows road ;-)

    -F

  28. #28
    rupu1983
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    Quote Originally Posted by meetdilip View Post
    How many seats Trinamul can bag. 10 ?
    Now this time Trinomul is fighting 27 seat among those 27 seat closed fight is going 20-22 seat now if they can win closed seats thenTrinomul can get 14-15 seats also.I think in both seat of Kolkata trinomul has better chance than the left and congress can get 5 or 6 seats.
    So the factor is what will be happen in marginal seats ?

  29. #29
    saurav_k
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    :no: rupu ... You are overestimating Trinamool Here. Maximum of 10 seats (most probably 9) for Trinamool and 5 or 6 seats for congress.

  30. #30
    rupu1983
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    I have said only
    Quote Originally Posted by rupu1983 View Post
    if they can win closed seats then Trinomul can get 14-15 seats also
    No i can't able to say exact number of seats but this time lots of seats are marginal so in best case Trinomul can win 14-15 seats in worst case may be they can win 6-7 seat also.


    Can anyone say about kerala how much seats can get congress & left parties.
    Last edited by rupu1983; 15th May 2009 at 05:19 PM.

  31. #31
    meetdilip
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    Quote Originally Posted by rupu1983 View Post
    Can anyone say about kerala how much seats can get congress & left parties.
    Exit polls say of 20, 5 for Left Democratic Front (LDF) and 15 for United Democratic Front (UDF) by congress. It may go up to 10 - 10, if left can swing it their way.

  32. #32
    Guardian Angel just4kix's Avatar
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    Default Who will win the poll?

    Adding a poll to the "poll" thread. (talk about alliterations)

    And you need to be quick. The poll closes in 24 hours.
    Last edited by just4kix; 15th May 2009 at 02:51 PM. Reason: Automerged Doublepost
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  33. #33
    saurav_k
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    For this to be actually like a Exit Poll - Vote for the Party/Alliance you support. Not for the one you dont support but you think will win.

  34. #34
    Guardian Angel just4kix's Avatar
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    My heart says NDA, head says UPA.
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  35. #35
    saurav_k
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    Quote Originally Posted by just4kix View Post
    My heart says NDA, head says UPA.
    Exactly the same for me.

  36. #36
    meetdilip
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    I think exit poll works the other way. We should find how people feel. We can vote to whom we feel will come to power after analyzing the scenario.

  37. #37
    rupu1983
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    I did not voted anyone so critical stage now.
    because 1st i don't think left will support congress Govt. because they already campaign extremely for non BJP & non Congress govt.
    2nd case now suppose if left gets 35 seats this time and also support UPA then Trinomul will not support such govt.So that mean again UPA will lose 10-12 vote.So it is quite strange situation.
    NDA has good opportunity this time also but they need support from more party like AIADMK/TDP/BSP.
    Third front has no chance.

  38. #38
    18lama
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    Its over...effin congies have won.

    A sad day in our so called 'democracy'. People have voted for more bombs, more guns and more paki terrorists. Sad day indeed.

  39. #39
    newprouser
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    Quote Originally Posted by 18lama View Post
    Its over...effin congies have won.

    A sad day in our so called 'democracy'. People have voted for more bombs, more guns and more paki terrorists. Sad day indeed.
    yes yes i'm very sad too... probably went in their favour coz BJP was too religious minded...

  40. #40
    saurav_k
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  41. #41
    18lama
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    Quote Originally Posted by newprouser View Post
    yes yes i'm very sad too... probably went in their favour coz BJP was too religious minded...
    thats not the reason...I am to disturbed to discuss/argue right now.:48:

  42. #42
    newprouser
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    Quote Originally Posted by 18lama View Post
    thats not the reason...I am to disturbed to discuss/argue right now.:48:
    k..

  43. #43
    saurav_k
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    Quote Originally Posted by 18lama View Post
    I am to disturbed
    me too...

  44. #44
    kirankumargb
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    Never expected this sort of result...!
    This is what happens when we uneducated people vote..!
    Feeling tensed by seeing where will the rates land in next 5 years ... guess the petrol will reach 70 rs/ltr this time..:w00t:

  45. #45
    newprouser
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    Quote Originally Posted by kirankumargb View Post
    Never expected this sort of result...!
    This is what happens when we uneducated people vote..!
    Feeling tensed by seeing where will the rates land in next 5 years ... guess the petrol will reach 70 rs/ltr this time..:w00t:
    exactly..

  46. #46
    18lama
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    Ok here's my analysis:

    BJP can't dream of coming to power unless it becomes a pan India party with a significant presence in all Indian states just like congress.

    I mean seriously without anything much to show for in TN, AP, Kerala, WB how can they or us expect bjp to do anything.

    40+42+20+42 = 144 seats, where BJP has nothing at all. How the f*** can we expect bjp to win when it has to make up for those seats in the rest of India. It will never work. Simple as that.

    Modi, Advani, Jaitely, hindutva, sickularism, terrorism, Gandhi, Italy etc are all minor details.You need hands and feet on the ground to do all your electioneering, which barrning a few states BJP does not have much of.

  47. #47
    meetdilip
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    Surprise

    The Rahul factor swings it in favour for UPA. One who wins UP, the Hindi heartland rules India. It is the Rahul factor the played the trick. Good news for UPA. Very poor performance by TDP. Even keeping away from saffron didn't help them.

  48. #48
    ShAdOwCoN
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    Post No 46
    +1 ^

    and Advani is not very inspiring either .... He s been PM in waiting for 2 long .... just like Gordan Brown

  49. #49
    saurav_k
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    Quote Originally Posted by meetdilip View Post
    Surprise

    The Rahul factor swings it in favour for UPA. One who wins UP, the Hindi heartland rules India. It is the Rahul factor the played the trick. Good news for UPA. Very poor performance by TDP. Even keeping away from saffron didn't help them.
    What exactly is the Rahul Factor?

    This?



    Rubbish

  50. #50
    18lama
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    ^ you can expect more of these in the coming days.

    The only good thing is the leftist lost and so did sh1te people like paswan and laloo. I say good riddance!

  51. #51
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    Quote Originally Posted by kirankumargb View Post
    Never expected this sort of result...!
    This is what happens when we uneducated people vote..!
    Feeling tensed by seeing where will the rates land in next 5 years ... guess the petrol will reach 70 rs/ltr this time..:w00t:
    Uneducated???? Whom are you talking about? Are you talking about yourself...
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  52. #52
    newprouser
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rameshjeee View Post
    Uneducated???? Whom are you talking about? Are you talking about yourself...
    Are you a supporter of the UPA by any chance ?

  53. #53
    The One
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    In some booths near my locales, many people didn't even have any idea how to use the voting machine. They were confused, and many old people (mainly old ladies) asked many for their help. But, the authorities there didn't allow anyone to help them.

  54. #54
    meetdilip
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    I really dont know how DMK managed this. The biggest surprise. Similar to last time, DMK's seats went in favour of UPA. Jayalalitha was really charismatic during the campaign. What about Azhagiri, won ? If so he is a union minister. May be telecom.

  55. #55
    saurav_k
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    Quote Originally Posted by dhaneshv View Post
    In some booths near my locales, many people didn't even have any idea how to use the voting machine. They were confused, and many old people (mainly old ladies) asked many for their help. But, the authorities there didn't allow anyone to help them.
    If the authorities help, TV cameras will capture it and project it as influencing people to vote for some particular party.

    The result in west bengal is a big shock. LEFT almost washed out
    Last edited by saurav_k; 16th May 2009 at 02:01 PM. Reason: Automerged Doublepost

  56. #56
    ShAdOwCoN
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    as far as i know they did not have cameras in most places

    they should have provided a demo

  57. #57
    kirankumargb
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rameshjeee View Post
    Uneducated???? Whom are you talking about? Are you talking about yourself...
    I am talking about the people who are really uneducated, i dont know if you are one of them, ( i dont want to get into any sort of argument).

    In 1998 i guess when Sushma swaraj was standing in election from Bellary & she campaigned there and after the election she lost from bellary, after that when my Mom was doing some program on election results (My mom was the Station Director for All India Radio, Hospet). When inquired why you people didnt support sushma they all said we all voted to sushma only, when asked the symbol of her party they all showed the symbol of congress, they told after sushma campaigned there were some people who told that sushma's symbol was Hand so every body voted for that.

    This is what I meant by Uneducated people. It is how mis-leading of people occurs when they are uneducated, let it be any party but most of the time when people are innocent they will be exploited.

  58. #58
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    You have mistaken me Kiran...I just wanted to clarify what you said..
    Because you said "This is what happens when we uneducated people vote..!" I didn't understand why you were saying yourself uneducated. I just wanted to clarify on this..

    Quote Originally Posted by newprouser View Post
    Are you a supporter of the UPA by any chance ?
    Yup...I am really happy that the UPA has come to the power once again...
    Last edited by Rameshjeee; 16th May 2009 at 07:00 PM. Reason: Automerged Doublepost
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  59. #59
    kirankumargb
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rameshjeee View Post
    You have mistaken me Kiran...I just wanted to clarify what you said..
    Because you said "This is what happens when we uneducated people vote..!" I didn't understand why you were saying yourself uneducated. I just wanted to clarify on this..
    I apologize for my comment, i too didnt read my own comment properly. I am sorry for the comment.

  60. #60
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    Quote Originally Posted by meetdilip View Post
    I really dont know how DMK managed this. The biggest surprise. Similar to last time, DMK's seats went in favour of UPA. Jayalalitha was really charismatic during the campaign. What about Azhagiri, won ? If so he is a union minister. May be telecom.
    Yes...Azhagiri, TR Balu, Dayanidhi Maran, A.Raja, Chidambaram...all have won.

    Quote Originally Posted by kirankumargb View Post
    I apologize for my comment, i too didnt read my own comment properly. I am sorry for the comment.
    No problem Kiran...Its good that we clarified our misunderstanding...
    Last edited by Rameshjeee; 16th May 2009 at 07:02 PM. Reason: Automerged Doublepost
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